Integración de modelos de aprendizaje automático y simulación espacial para el análisis del cambio de uso del suelo en Loja, Ecuador

Ivonne González-Coronel; Verónica Muñoz-Sotomayor; María Fernanda Burneo-Ordóñez

doi:10.18172/cig.6683

Authors

Ivonne González-Coronel Universidad Técnica Particular de Loja https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6923-0996
Verónica Muñoz-Sotomayor Universidad Internacional del Ecuador https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4023-8390
María Fernanda Burneo-Ordóñez Universidad Técnica Particular de Loja https://orcid.org/0009-0004-1361-0948

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18172/cig.6683

Keywords:

cambio de uso del suelo, expansión urbana, modelos predictivos, planificación territorial, Cambio climático

Abstract

This study analyzed land-use change patterns in Loja, Ecuador, between 1990 and 2020 using transition matrices and the change intensity methodological framework. Based on these spatiotemporal dynamics, urban expansion was projected to 2070, and alternative scenarios were generated. To explain current dynamics, the Random Forest model achieved the best performance (accuracy: 90.72%; Kappa: 0.852; quantity disagreement: 0.04; allocation disagreement: 0.17). In the trend scenario for 2070, urban expansion would primarily affect agricultural areas (93.6%) and natural vegetation (6.15%), including approximately 17.2% of zones with a high landslide risk. Under future climate scenarios, this expansion is expected to be concentrated in areas with projected increases in temperature and precipitation, potentially heightening the city’s vulnerability to extreme events. The results highlight the usefulness of open-access tools for modeling future urban scenarios in data-limited contexts, as well as the replicability of the methodology in other intermediate cities facing similar challenges. Overall, this study contributes to the design of sustainable land management strategies tailored to local contexts.

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