Identification of Key Habitats for the Conservation of Three Bird Species in the Ecuadorian Chocó Biogeographic Region
A Diffuse Overlap Approach to Current and Future Ecological Niches
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18172/cig.6898Keywords:
species distribution, climate change, tropical biodiversity, ornithologyAbstract
Climate change is inducing modifications in species distribution patterns within biodiverse regions such as the Ecuadorian Chocó Biogeographical region. This study identifies priority conservation areas for three key bird species (Cephalopterus penduliger, Morphnarchus princeps, and Bangsia edwardsi) using ecological niche modeling and fuzzy overlay approaches. MaxEnt software was used to project current and future suitability under the SSP585 scenario (2021 - 2040), integrating bioclimatic and topographic variables with presence records. Validation using TSS and AUC indicated robust model performance. Results project heterogeneous responses to climate change: a critical niche contraction for Cephalopterus penduliger (31.4% loss of suitable habitat) and a moderate reduction for Morphnarchus princeps (-10.9%), driven by thermal and topographic constraints. In contrast, Bangsia edwardsi showed a potential range expansion of 16.6% towards higher altitudes. Fuzzy overlay analysis (Fuzzy Gamma) highlighted the mountainous foothills in the east of the region (800-1,800 m a.s.l.) as priority climate refugia. We conclude that while refugia exist, the viability of these species will depend on the protection of altitudinal corridors against landscape fragmentation.
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