Rainfall Pattern and Erosivity: A 90-Year Study in a Cropland Region of Argentina

Mariela Seehaus; Manuel López-Vicente; Ana Beatriz Wingeyer; María Carolina Sasal; Alejandra Lorena Cuatrin; Emanuel Melgares

doi:10.18172/cig.7019

Authors

Mariela Seehaus Universidade da Coruña https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5642-2155
Manuel López-Vicente Universidad de Zaragoza https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6379-8844
Ana Beatriz Wingeyer National Agricultural Technology Institute https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5579-9532
María Carolina Sasal National Agricultural Technology Institute https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8279-3045
Alejandra Lorena Cuatrin National Agricultural Technology Institute https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7327-6110
Emanuel Melgares National Agricultural Technology Institute

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18172/cig.7019

Keywords:

rainfall, rainy days, Heavy rainfall, rainfall erosivity, climate change

Abstract

Water soil erosion is a significant threat to agricultural sustainability and a key process of land degradation. Climate change is altering precipitation patterns and increasing rainfall erosivity globally, leading to more extreme hydrological conditions, yet many agriculturally significant regions lack detailed long-term analysis. This study addresses this gap by quantifying 90-year trends (1934-2023) in key precipitation metrics—total depth, number of rainy days, frequency of heavy rainfall events (>50 mm), and rainfall erosivity (R-factor)—in a critical cropland region of Argentina. Analysis of daily data from the Paraná Agrometeorological Station revealed significant breakpoints in the 1970s. Post-breakpoint increases were observed for annual rainfall depth (+16% since 1975), rainy days (+19% since 1972), heavy rainfall events (+21% since 1971), and rainfall erosivity (+24% since 1977). On a monthly basis, March exhibited the highest erosivity. Despite a recent decrease in total monthly precipitation for March, its erosive potential appears to be sustained by a higher concentration of rainfall in intense events. Conversely, the period from May to September was characterized by lower and more stable erosivity values. A positive and significant correlation was established between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), measured by the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), and all rainfall variables, with the strongest influence observed during the spring-summer seasons. Furthermore, the frequency of quarters classified as El Niño conditions has increased since the mid-1970s breakpoint. This study demonstrates a clear climatic shift towards conditions of higher precipitation and greater erosivity in the region. These findings underscore the urgent need for enhanced soil and water conservation policies to mitigate the increasing risk of land degradation.

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Author Biographies

Mariela Seehaus, Universidade da Coruña

¹ Group Aquaterra, Universidade da Coruña, 15071 A Coruña, Spain.

² INTA EEA Paraná, Ruta 11, km. 12.5. 3100 Paraná, Entre Ríos, Argentina.

Manuel López-Vicente, Universidad de Zaragoza

GEOFOREST, Departamento de Ciencias Agrarias y del Medio Natural, Escuela Politécnica Superior de Huesca, Instituto Universitario de Investigación en Ciencias Ambientales de Aragón (IUCA), Universidad de Zaragoza, 22071 Huesca, Spain.

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