The influence of climate variability on risk assessment of tropical cyclogenesis in the Gulf of Mexico
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18172/cig.5847Keywords:
Tropical Cyclogenesis, natural hazard , risk assessment, Madden-Julian Oscillation, El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Gulf of MéxicoAbstract
Climate change and climate variability risk assessments are usually focus on tropical cyclones due to the potential hazard for human society, especially in urban coastal areas such as those along the Gulf of México. The frequency of this natural phenomenon depends on the confluence of different dynamic (wind divergence and relative vorticity) and thermodynamic (atmospheric water content and sea surface temperature) factors. Large scale atmospheric oscillations modulate these factors and influence tropical cyclone (TC) formation and development, producing important social and economic impacts. This work explores the Maden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and El Niño-South ern Oscillation (ENSO) relationship in regard to the Gulf of México tropical cyclogenesis, using time series and synoptic case study analyses, in order to contribute to future risk assessments in these coastal zones. Results indicate MJO and ENSO frequencies are present in wind divergence and relative vorticity, atmospheric water vapor content, and sea surface temperature. Concurring cold phase ENSO and convective phase MJO conditions benefit TC formation, while warm phase ENSO conditions inhibit TC formation and affect the MJO cycle. Synoptic case study analyses show wind divergence and atmospheric water content anomalies dominate TC behavior.
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Copyright (c) 2024 Ernesto Villate García, Guillermo Gutiérrez de Velasco Sanromán, Lemay Entenza Tilman, Irina Tereshchenko, Julio Cesar Morales Hernández, Faustino O. García Concepción
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