Influencia de la variabilidad climática en la evaluación del riesgo de ciclogénesis tropical en el Golfo de México

Ernesto Villate García; Guillermo Gutiérrez de Velasco Sanromán; Lemay Entenza Tilman; Irina Tereshchenko; Julio Cesar Morales Hernández; Faustino O. García Concepción

doi:10.18172/cig.5847

Autores/as

Ernesto Villate García Universidad de Guadalajara
Guillermo Gutiérrez de Velasco Sanromán Universidad de Guadalajara
Lemay Entenza Tilman Universidad de México https://orcid.org/0009-0005-6168-5095
Irina Tereshchenko Universidad de Guadalajara https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3643-2898
Julio Cesar Morales Hernández Universidad de Guadalajara https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9932-6945
Faustino O. García Concepción Universidad de Guadalajara https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8179-6447

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18172/cig.5847

Palabras clave:

Ciclogénesis tropical, peligro natural, evaluación de riesgos, Oscilación Madden-Julian, El Niño-Oscilación del Sur, Golfo de México

Resumen

Las evaluaciones de riesgos del cambio climático y la variabilidad climática generalmente se centran en ciclones tropicales debido al peligro potencial para la sociedad humana, especialmente en áreas costeras urbanas como las que se encuentran a lo largo del Golfo de México. La frecuencia de este fenómeno natural depende de la confluencia de diferentes factores dinámicos (divergencia del viento y vorticidad relativa) y termodinámicos (contenido de agua atmosférica y temperatura de la superficie del mar). Las oscilaciones atmosféricas a gran escala modulan estos factores e influyen en la formación y el desarrollo de ciclones tropicales (TC), produciendo importantes impactos sociales y económicos. Este trabajo explora la relación entre la Oscilación Maden-Julian (MJO) y El Niño-Oscilación del Sur (ENSO) con respecto a la ciclogénesis tropical del Golfo de México, utilizando series temporales y análisis de estudios de casos sinópticos, con el fin de contribuir a futuras evaluaciones de riesgos en estas zonas costeras. Los resultados indican que las frecuencias de OMJ y ENSO están presentes en la divergencia del viento y la vorticidad relativa, el contenido de vapor de agua atmosférico y la temperatura de la superficie del mar. Las condiciones concurrentes de ENOS de fase fría y OMJ de fase convectiva benefician la formación de TC, mientras que las condiciones de ENOS de fase cálida inhiben la formación de TC y afectan el ciclo de OMJ. Los análisis sinópticos de los estudios de caso muestran que la divergencia del viento y las anomalías en el contenido de agua atmosférica dominan el comportamiento de los TC.

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