Land cover change modelling in Hyrcanian forests, Northern Iran: a landscape pattern and transformation analysis perspective

S.J. Shooshtari; K. Shayesteh; M. Gholamalifard; M. Azari; J.I. López-Moreno

doi:10.18172/cig.3279

Autores/as

S.J. Shooshtari Malayer University
K. Shayesteh Malayer University http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8451-058X
M. Gholamalifard Tarbiat Modares University
M. Azari Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
J.I. López-Moreno Pyrenean Institute of Ecology, CSIC

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18172/cig.3279

Palabras clave:

cambios de usos del suelo, índices de paisaje, análisis de transformación de paisaje, bosques hircanios, Irán

Resumen

El objetivo principal de este trabajo es analizar los patrones espaciotemporales de cambios del uso del suelo (1984-2010) y generar escenarios para el horizonte temporal 2030 en la cuenca del río Neka, en el norte de Irán. Dicha cuenca alberga bosques hircanios, de gran riqueza ecológica y que sólo se encuentran en algunos sectores del entorno del mar Caspio. Para ello se han utilizado mapas muy detallados de usos del suelo para los periodos 1984 y 2010. Los resultados evidencian procesos moderados de deforestación, fundamentalmente debidos a la expansión de zonas agrícolas y urbanas. Además los resultados indican una evolución hacia bosques más fragmentados y con una pérdida de conectividad. La metodología para simular cambios de usos del suelo fue capaz de reproducir adecuadamente (con un acierto del 96.4%) los usos del suelo simulados para el año 2010. Los escenarios para 2030 muestran una continuidad en los cambios observados durante el periodo 1984-2010, apareciendo nuevos cultivos y zonas urbanas dentro de las zonas actualmente ocupadas por bosques. Si bien la deforestación del bosque hircanio es moderada y ocupa un pequeño porcentaje de la superficie total, representa una afección evidente a los ecosistemas de la región y puede tener impactos asociados en la producción de escorrentía, recarga de acuíferos, explotaciones forestales y procesos erosivos. Así, la información generada puede resultar una herramienta de utilidad para los gestores del territorio y la gestión de los bosques hircanios en la cuenca del río Neka.

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