Temporal variations of trends in the Central England Temperature series

J.C. González-Hidalgo; D. Peña-Angulo; S. Beguería

doi:10.18172/cig.4377

Autores/as

J.C. González-Hidalgo Universidad de Zaragoza
D. Peña-Angulo Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (IPE-CSIC)
S. Beguería Estación Experimental Aula Dei, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (EEAD-CSIC)

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18172/cig.4377

Palabras clave:

Temperatura de Inglaterra Central, tendencia climática, variabilidad climática, señal/ruido

Resumen

Hemos analizado las variaciones de la tasa de la tendencia de las temperaturas medias anuales de la serie conocida como Central England Temperature (CET) durante el periodo 1659-2017, con el objetivo de identificar el periodo mínimo en el que la tendencia exprese una señal climática no oscurecida por el ruido originado por la variabilidad natural. Las tasas de tendencia exhiben una gran variabilidad e irregularidad cambiando de signo positivo a negativo excepto en ventanas temporales prolongadas de más de cien años. En general, a medida que la duración de la ventana temporal aumenta el rango absoluto de las tendencias decrece y la ratio Señal/Ruido (S/N) aumenta. La relación entre la ratio S/N y la longitud de la ventana depende también de la longitud total de la serie, de manera que se logran valores más elevados de S/N cuando la serie complete es más corta. Estos resultados sugieren evitar periodos cortos de tiempo para estimar o validar una tendencia.

La comparación de CET y la serie de promedios de temperatura anual continental europea de la base de datos Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) en su periodo común (1753-2017) repite los patrones de comportamiento descritos en el periodo 1659-2017, si bien los promedios de las tasas, el rango de las mismas y el periodo umbral en años cambia, siendo más variables en CET que en BEST.

El análisis de las dos series sugiere que el aumento de las temperaturas comenzó hace tiempo y puede asociarse a la recuperación de las mismas tras la pequeña edad de hielo (LIA). Este proceso se ha caracterizado por un aumento progresivo de las tendencias incluyendo periodos de desaceleración o incluso tasas negativas en ventanas temporales de menos de 50 años. El comportamiento de ambas series concuerda con los procesos denominados de larga persistencia (long-term persistence, LTP); el exponente de Hurst de la serie CET calculado oscila entre 0.72 y 0.8, lo que refuerza dicha hipótesis, e implica que las asunciones tradicionales (series estacionarias con escasa memoria), en las que las variaciones puedan ser estudiadas por medio de tendencias monotónicas, no deberían aceptarse en el caso de series climáticas de gran longitud. En resumen, numerosas preguntas relativas a la reciente evolución de las temperaturas, como la distinción entre variabilidad natural de la tendencia climática, la atribución de las causas de la variabilidad en diferentes escalas temporales, la determinación del periodo mínimo de tiempo para detector una tendencia, y otras similares, no han sido plenamente contestadas y podrían requerir la adopción de nuevos enfoques y planteamientos.

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