Floods evolution in the Mediterranean region in a context of climate and environmental change

María Carmen Llasat

doi:10.18172/cig.4897

Autores/as

María Carmen Llasat Universitat de Barcelona http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8720-4193

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18172/cig.4897

Palabras clave:

Inundaciones, flash floods, cambio climático, riesgos naturales, región mediterránea

Resumen

Las inundaciones son el mayor riesgo de la región mediterránea debido tanto a su frecuencia como a su impacto. Estudios de inundaciones históricas ponen de manifiesto que los periodos con un mayor número de inundaciones podrían estar asociados a causas climáticas, pero hay también una cierta tendencia a vincularlos a cambios en los usos del suelo y a un incremento de la vulnerabilidad. Si los escenarios climáticos apuntan a un incremento de la torrencialidad de las precipitaciones, con periodos secos más prolongados y lluvias más intensas, hay todavía un elevado nivel de incertidumbre en su impacto sobre las inundaciones. Este trabajo aborda esta temática, considerando también el complejo papel de los cambios en los riesgos, vulnerabilidad, exposición y capacidad. Se presenta una síntesis del estado del arte, con particular incidencia en los primeros resultados del MedECC y la más reciente bibliografía sobre las tendencias de las inundaciones. Las conclusiones muestran que las inundaciones en esta región son consecuencia principalmente de eventos de flash-flood. Se ha encontrado una tendencia positiva (nivel de confianza alto) de flash-floods en el pasado probablemente debido a cambios de usos del suelo y a la ocupación de espacios proclives a las inundaciones. El incremento de la precipitación convectiva también podría justificar esta tendencia positiva en los tiempos más recientes, especialmente en algunas regiones (confianza baja). Se espera que las vulnerabilidades a los riesgos relacionados con el agua se vean influidas por las condiciones socioeconómicas futuras a escala regional (confianza media). Aunque los cambios esperados en los riesgos de inundaciones no son unívocos, ni están distribuidos uniformemente, los impactos de las inundaciones aumentarán en toda la región mediterránea, principalmente como consecuencia de los cambios globales en las cuencas (uso del suelo, vulnerabilidad, exposición) y el incremento de las precipitaciones intensas en el sector norte de la cuenca.

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Biografía del autor/a

María Carmen Llasat, Universitat de Barcelona

Full Professor of Atmospheric Physics

Department of Applied Physics

University of Barcelona

Citas

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