Fire Risk Assessment In The Wildland-Urban Interface Of Ibero-Atlantic Heterogeneous Landscapes

Susana Suárez-Seoane; Lucía García-Candanedo; Daniel Pfitzer-López; Jose Manuel Fernández-Guisuraga; Arturo Colina-Vuelta; Juan Luis Martín-Correa; Leonor Calvo; Jose Valentín Roces-Diaz

doi:10.18172/cig.6848

Autores/as

Susana Suárez-Seoane Universidad de Oviedo https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7656-4214
Lucía García-Candanedo Universidad de Oviedo https://orcid.org/0009-0005-5272-9033
Daniel Pfitzer-López Universidad de Oviedo https://orcid.org/0009-0009-4167-4398
Jose Manuel Fernández-Guisuraga Universidad de León https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6065-3981
Arturo Colina-Vuelta Universidad de Oviedo https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7793-0837
Juan Luis Martín-Correa Integrated Forest Fire Prevention Team (EPRIF)- Central Asturias
Leonor Calvo Universidad de León https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3710-0817
Jose Valentín Roces-Diaz Universidad de Oviedo https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2569-8049

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18172/cig.6848

Palabras clave:

exposición al fuego, gran incendio de Foyedo, índice espectral RBR, IUF, paveseo, severidad del fuego

Resumen

Los incendios forestales producen multitud de impactos ambientales y socioeconómicos, identificándose el mayor riesgo para las personas en la interfaz urbano-forestal (IUF). En los paisajes Ibero-Atlánticos, donde los asentamientos dispersos se expanden hacia las zonas forestales y la vegetación avanza hacia las áreas habitadas, está aumentando la frecuencia y severidad de los incendios de IUF. El objetivo de este estudio fue desarrollar un enfoque metodológico para evaluar el riesgo de incendio en la IUF de paisajes heterogéneos Ibero-Atlánticos bajo el supuesto de que el fuego puede impactar en las entidades de población por exposición directa o indirecta a diferentes tipos de vegetación. Tomando como base el análisis espacial de la configuración del paisaje, el conocimiento de experto sobre el comportamiento del fuego en distintos tipos de vegetación y las observaciones in situ sobre el impacto del fuego en edificios y otras infraestructuras, se ideó un sistema multi-anillo en torno a distintos tipos de entidades de población que permitió caracterizar los patrones espaciales de la vegetación pre-incendio y la severidad del fuego en áreas de influencia (anillos) dentro de la IUF. Las relaciones entre vegetación y severidad (estimada con el índice espectral de área quemada relativa –RBR– derivado de imágenes de satélite Sentinel-2) se evaluaron utilizando modelos de regresión lineal multivariante a dos niveles: IUF y anillo. Esta aproximación se probó en el gran incendio forestal de Foyedo (Asturias, noroeste de España) que afectó a más de 10.000 ha en primavera de 2023. La vegetación cambió a lo largo de la IUF, reflejando un gradiente de uso del suelo, desde tipos de vegetación más gestionados cerca de los asentamientos hasta otros menos gestionados y más naturales en zonas periféricas, con un aumento de la severidad del fuego hacia el exterior. Los impulsores más importantes de la severidad fueron el tipo de vegetación y su complejidad vertical. A nivel de anillo, el patrón fue similar, siendo el porcentaje de matorrales el mejor predictor de la severidad. En el anillo más externo, el porcentaje de pinares y eucaliptares también se relacionó directamente con la severidad. Se evidencia la necesidad de desarrollar marcos analíticos espacialmente estructurados que integren los diferentes tipos de exposición al fuego en la IUF, con el fin de guiar estrategias más eficaces de gestión de la vegetación para la prevención de incendios forestales en los paisajes atlánticos de la Península Ibérica.

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