Numerical simulations of recent and future evolution of Monte Perdido glacier

Anna Mateos-García; María Santolaria-Otín; Yolanda Sola; Esteban Alonso-González; Jaime Otero; Luis Mariano del Rio; Juan Ignacio López-Moreno; Jesús Revuelto

doi:10.18172/cig.5816

Authors

Anna Mateos-García Universitat de Barcelona https://orcid.org/0009-0003-4678-1738
María Santolaria-Otín Grup de Meteorologia, Departament de Física Aplicada, Facultat de Física, Universitat de Barcelona, Martí i Franquès, 08028 Barcelona, Spain https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9232-5245
Yolanda Sola Grup de Meteorologia, Departament de Física Aplicada, Facultat de Física, Universitat de Barcelona, Martí i Franquès, 08028 Barcelona, Spain https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8693-9152
Esteban Alonso-González Centre d’Etudes Spatiales de la Biosphère, Université de Toulouse, CNRS–CNES–IRD–INRA–UPS, Toulouse, France; Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología (CSIC), Avda Montañana 1005, 50080 Zaragoza, Spain https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1883-3823
Jaime Otero Departamento de Matemática Aplicada a las Tecnologías de la Información y las Comunicaciones, E.T.S.I. de Telecomunicación, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Av. Complutense, 30, ES-28040 Madrid, Spain https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3518-7763
Luis Mariano del Rio Departamento de Física Aplicada. Escuela Politécnica, Universidad de Extremadura, Cáceres 10071, Spain
Juan Ignacio López-Moreno Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología (CSIC), Avda Montañana 1005, 50080 Zaragoza, Spain https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7270-9313
Jesús Revuelto https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5483-0147

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18172/cig.5816

Keywords:

Mountain glacier, OGGM, in-situ surface observations, climate change

Abstract

Glaciers are globally retreating due to climate change, and the Pyrenees Mountain range is no exception. This study uses the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) to explore the dynamics of the Monte Perdido glacier, one of the largest remaining glaciers in the Pyrenees. We explored three calibration approaches to assess their performances when reproducing observed volume decreases. The first approach involved mass balance calibration using terrestrial laser scanning data from 2011 to 2022 and climate data from a nearby weather station. The second approach used terrestrial laser scanning calibration with default climate data provided by OGGM (GSWP3-W5E5). The third approach used default geodetic mass balance calibration and default climate data. By comparing these calibration strategies and analysing historical data (terrestrial laser scanning and ground penetrating radar), we obtain insights of the applicability of OGGM to this small, mild conditions, Pyrenean glacier. The first calibration approach is identified as the most effective, emphasising the importance of selecting appropriate climate data and calibration methods. Additionally, we conducted future volume projections using an ensemble of General Circulation Models (GCMs) under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The results indicate a potential decrease in total ice volume ranging from 91.60% to 95.16% by 2100, depending on the scenario. Overall, this study contributes to the understanding of the Monte Perdido glacier’s behaviour and its response to climate change through the calibration of the OGGM, while also providing the first estimate of its future melting under different emission scenarios.

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