Simulaciones numéricas de la evolución reciente y futura del glaciar Monte Perdido
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18172/cig.5816Palabras clave:
Glaciar de montaña, OGGM, observaciones superficiales in-situ, cambio climáticoResumen
Los glaciares están retrocediendo globalmente debido al cambio climático, y la cordillera de los Pirineos no es una excepción. Este estudio utiliza el modelo Open Global Glacier (OGGM) para explorar la dinámica del glaciar Monte Perdido, uno de los glaciares actuales de mayor tamaño de los Pirineos. Se exploran tres enfoques de calibración para evaluar sus rendimientos al reproducir las disminuciones de volumen observadas. El primer enfoque consistió en calibrar el balance de masas utilizando datos de escaneo láser terrestre de 2011 a 2022 y datos climáticos de una estación meteorológica cercana. El segundo enfoque utilizó la calibración de escaneo láser terrestre con datos climáticos predeterminados proporcionados por OGGM (GSWP3-W5E5). El tercer enfoque manejó la calibración geodésica predeterminada del balance de masas y los datos climáticos predeterminados. Al comparar estas estrategias de calibración y analizar los datos históricos (escaneo láser terrestre y radar de penetración en el suelo), se obtiene información sobre la aplicabilidad del OGGM a este pequeño glaciar pirenaico. Se considera que el primer método de calibración es el más eficaz, haciendo hincapié en la importancia de seleccionar los datos climáticos y los métodos de calibración adecuados. Además, se realizaron proyecciones de volumen futuras utilizando un conjunto de modelos de circulación general (GCMs) bajo los escenarios RCP2.6 y RCP8.5. Los resultados indican una disminución potencial en el volumen total de hielo que va del 91,60% al 95,16% para 2100, dependiendo del escenario. En general, este estudio contribuye a la comprensión del comportamiento del glaciar Monte Perdido y su respuesta al cambio climático a través de la calibración del OGGM, al tiempo que proporciona la primera estimación de su futura fusión bajo diferentes escenarios de emisión.
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Derechos de autor 2024 Anna Mateos-García, María Santolaria-Otín, Yolanda Sola , Esteban Alonso-González, Jaime Otero, Luis Mariano del Rio, Juan Ignacio López-Moreno, Jesús Revuelto
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