Cambios en la frecuencia y severidad en las sequías hidrológicas de Etiopía entre 1960 y 2013
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18172/cig.2931Palabras clave:
sequía, Índice de Precipitación Estandarizada, precipitación, variabilidad, tendencias, Análisis de Componentes Principales, EtiopíaResumen
Se presenta un análisis de la ocurrencia y variabilidad de sequías en Etiopía, basado en datos de precipitación mensual de la Climate Research Unit (CRU-v3.22) para el periodo entre 1960 y 2013. Los eventos de sequía se caracterizaron por medio del Índice de Precipitación Estandarizada (SPI) aplicado a los datos de precipitación para una escala temporal de 12 meses. A escala nacional, los resultados revelan un descenso estadísticamente significativo en la severidad de las sequías en un periodo de 54 años, un patrón que se atribuye principalmente al descenso en la frecuencia de episodios de sequía de elevada intensidad. Para comprobar los patrones generals de evolución de sequías se aplicó un análisis de components principals (PCA) a las series de SPI. Los resultados del PCA indican una alta heterogeneidad espacial en las variaciones del SPI durante el period investigado, habiéndose identificado diez regiones espacialmente diferentes. Los components del PCA representaron el 72.9% de la varianza total de sequías en la region. Estas regiones también mostraron un aumento en las condiciones de humedad en décadas recientes. En contraste, las regiones que reciben menos de 400 mm de precipitación annual mostraron una tendencia decreciente, siendo la region de Afar la que presenta los mayores cambios. En general, las regiones más elevadas de las tierras altas del centro de Etiopía son las que mostraron menores cambios en comparación con las tierras bajas. Este estudio confirma el carácter local de la evolución de las sequías en Etiopía, proporcionando evidencias para los políticos y técnicos con el fin de adoptar políticas locales apropiadas para enfrentarse a los riesgos de sequías. En Etiopía, se require un studio especial detallado de la evolución de las sequías para una major comprensión de los posibles impactos de sequías recurrentes sobre la agricultura, la producción de alimento, la degradación del suelo, los asentamientos humanos y las migraciones, así como la producción de energía y las gestión de los recursos hídricos en Etiopía.Descargas
Citas
Agnew, C.T. (2000). Using the SPI to identify drought. Drought Network News, 12 (1), 6-12.
Antwi-Agyei, P., Fraser, E.D.G., Dougill, A.J., Stringer, L.C., Simelton, E. 2012. Mapping the vulnerability of crop production to drought in Ghana using rainfall, yield and socioeconomic data. Applied Geography 32 (2), 324-334. Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2011.06.010
Arismendi, I., Johnson, S.L., Dunham, J.B., Haggerty, R., Hockman-Wert, D. 2012. The paradox of cooling streams in a warming world: Regional climate trends do not parallel variable local trends in stream temperature in the Pacific continental United States. Geophysical Research Letters 39 (10). Doi: 10.1029/2012GL051448
Bejarán, R.A., Camilloni, I.A. 2003. Objective method for classifying air masses: an application to the analysis of Buenos Aires’ (Argentina) urban heat island intensity. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 74 (1-2), 93-103. Doi: 10.1007/s00704-002-0714-4
Beltrando, G., Camberlin, P. 1993. Interannual variability of rainfall in the eastern horn of Africa and indicators of atmospheric circulation. International Journal of Climatology 13 (5), 533-546. Doi: 10.1002/joc.3370130505
Bewket, W., Conway, D. 2007. A note on the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall in the drought-prone Amhara region of Ethiopia. International Journal of Climatology 27 (11), 1467-1477. Doi: 10.1002/joc.1481
Boken, V.K. (2009). Improving a drought early warning model for an arid region using a soil-moisture index. Applied Geography 29 (3), 402-408. Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2008.12.006
Bonaccorso, B., Bordi, I., Cancelliere, A., Rossi, G., Sutera, A. 2003. Spatial Variability of Drought: An Analysis of the SPI in Sicily. Water Resources Management 17 (4), 273-296. Doi: 10.1023/A:1024716530289
Brando, P.M., Balch, J.K., Nepstad, D.C., Morton, D.C., Putz, F.E., Coe, M.T., . . . Soares-Filho, B.S. 2014. Abrupt increases in Amazonian tree mortality due to drought–fire interactions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111 (17), 6347-6352. Doi: 10.1073/pnas.1305499111
Burke, M.B., Miguel, E., Satyanath, S., Dykema, J.A., Lobell, D.B. 2009. Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106 (49), 20670-20674. Doi: 10.1073/pnas.0907998106.
Conway, D. 2000. Some aspects of climate variability in the north east Ethiopian Highlands — Wollo and Tigray. SINET — Ethiopian Journal of Science 23, 139–161.
Conway, D., Schipper, E.L.F. 2011. Adaptation to climate change in Africa: Challenges and opportunities identified from Ethiopia. Global Environmental Change 21, 227–237.
Dai, A. 2011. Drought under global warming: a review. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 2 (1), 45-65. Doi: 10.1002/wcc.81
Dai, A. 2013. Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models. Nature Climate Change 3 (1), 52-58.
Dedieu, J.P., Besic, N., Vasile, G., Mathieu, J., Durand, Y., Gottardi, F. 2014. Dry snow analysis in alpine regions using RADARSAT-2 full polarimetry data. Comparison with in situ measurements. Paper presented at the Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium (IGARSS), 2014 IEEE International.
Deng, L., McCabe, M.F., Stenchikov, G., Evans, J.P. Kucera, P.A. 2015. Simulation of flash-flood-producing storm events in Saudi Arabia using the weather research and forecasting model. Journal of Hydrometeorology 16 (2), 615-630. Doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-14-0126.1
Diro, G.T., Black, E., Grimes, D.I.F. 2008. Seasonal forecasting of Ethiopian spring rains. Meteorological Applications 15 (1), 73-83. Doi: 10.1002/met.63
Edossa, D., Babel, M., Das Gupta, A. 2010. Drought Analysis in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia. Water Resources Management 24 (7), 1441-1460. Doi: 10.1007/s11269-009-9508-0
El Kenawy, A., López-Moreno, J.I., Vicente-Serrano, S. 2013. Summer temperature extremes in northeastern Spain: spatial regionalization and links to atmospheric circulation (1960–2006). Theoretical and Applied Climatology 113 (3-4), 387-405. Doi: 10.1007/s00704-012-0797-5
El Kenawy, A.M., McCabe, M.F. 2015. A multi-decadal assessment of the performance of gauge- and model-based rainfall products over Saudi Arabia: climatology, anomalies and trends. International Journal of Climatology. Doi: 10.1002/joc.4374.
Funk, C., Dettinger, M.D., Michaelsen, J.C., Verdin, J.P., Brown, M.E., Barlow, M., Hoell, A. 2008. Warming of the Indian Ocean threatens eastern and southern African food security but could be mitigated by agricultural development. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105 (32), 11081-11086. Doi: 10.1073/pnas.0708196105
Gebrehiwot, T., van der Veen, A., Maathuis, B. 2011. Spatial and temporal assessment of drought in the Northern highlands of Ethiopia. International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation 13 (3), 309-321. Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2010.12.002
Griffiths, J.F. (1972). Climates of Africa, World Survey of Climatology, 10. Amsterdam, Elsevier.
Guanghui, W., Xinguang, D., Anyan, H. 2011. Discuss on reference crop evapotranspiration in arid zone based on principal component analysis. Paper presented at the Water Resource and Environmental Protection (ISWREP), 2011 International Symposium.
Harris, I., Jones, P.D., Osborn, T.J., Lister, D.H. 2014. Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations – the CRU TS3.10 Dataset. International Journal of Climatology 34 (3), 623-642. Doi: 10.1002/joc.3711
Hirschi, M., Seneviratne, S.I., Alexandrov, V., Boberg, F., Boroneant, C., Christensen, O.B., … Stepanek, P. 2011. Observational evidence for soil-moisture impact on hot extremes in southeastern Europe. Nature Geosciences 4 (1), 17-21.
Hoerling, M., Hurrell, J., Eischeid, J., Phillips, A. 2006. Detection and Attribution of Twentieth-Century Northern and Southern African Rainfall Change. Journal of Climate 19 (16), 3989-4008. Doi: 10.1175/JCLI3842.1
Hunt, E. D., Svoboda, M., Wardlow, B., Hubbard, K., Hayes, M. and Arkebauer, T. (2014). Monitoring the effects of rapid onset of drought on non-irrigated maize with agronomic data and climate-based drought indices. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 191, 1-11. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2014.02.001
Ji, L. and Peters, A.J. 2003. Assessing vegetation response to drought in the northern Great Plains using vegetation and drought indices. Remote Sensing of Environment 87 (1), 85-98. Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0034-4257(03)00174-3
Kaiser, H.F. 1960. The application of electronic computers to factor analysis. Educational and Psychological Measurement 20, 141-151.
Korecha, D., Barnston, A. G. 2007. Predictability of June–September Rainfall in Ethiopia. Monthly Weather Review 135 (2), 628-650. Doi: 10.1175/MWR3304.1.
Livneh, B., Bohn, T.J., Pierce, D.W., Munoz-Arriola, F., Nijssen, B., Vose, R., Brekke, L. 2015. A spatially comprehensive, hydrometeorological data set for Mexico, the U.S., and Southern Canada 1950–2013. Scientific Data 2, 150042. Doi: 10.1038/sdata.2015.42
Llasat, M.C., Ceperuelo, M., Rigo, T. 2007. Rainfall regionalization on the basis of the precipitation convective features using a raingauge network and weather radar observations. Atmospheric Research 83 (2–4), 415-426. Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2005.08.014
Lloyd-Hughes, B., Saunders, M.A. 2002. A drought climatology for Europe. International Journal of Climatology 22 (13), 1571-1592. Doi: 10.1002/joc.846
McKee, T.B., Doeskin, N.J., Kleist, J. (1993). The relationship of drought frequency and duration to time scales. Paper presented at the 8th Conf. on Applied Climatology, Anaheim, Canada.
Meinke, H., deVoil, P., Hammer, G.L., Power, S., Allan, R., Stone, R.C., Potgieter, A. 2005. Rainfall Variability at Decadal and Longer Time Scales: Signal or Noise? Journal of Climate 18 (1), 89-96. Doi: 10.1175/JCLI-3263.1
Meze-Hausken, E. 2004. Contrasting climate variability and meteorological drought with perceived drought and climate change in northern Ethiopia. Climate Research 27 (1), 19-31. Doi: 10.3354/cr027019
Mishra, A.K., Singh, V.P. 2010. A review of drought concepts. Journal of Hydrology 391 (1–2), 202-216. Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.012
McSweeney, C., New, M., Lixcano, G. 2007. Ethiopia. UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles report.
Ngongondo, C., Xu, C.Y., Gottschalk, L., Alemaw, B. 2011. Evaluation of spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall in Malawi: a case of data scarce region. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 106 (1-2), 79-93. Doi: 10.1007/s00704-011-0413-0
Ntale, H.K., Gan, T.Y. 2003. Drought indices and their application to East Africa. International Journal of Climatology 23 (11), 1335-1357. Doi: 10.1002/joc.931
Peel, M.C., Finlayson, B.L., McMahon, T.A. 2007. Updated world map of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 11 (5), 1633-1644. Doi: 10.5194/hess-11-1633-2007
Peters, J.M., Schumacher, R.S. (2014). Objective Categorization of Heavy-Rain-Producing MCS Synoptic Types by Rotated Principal Component Analysis. Monthly Weather Review 142 (5), 1716-1737. Doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-13-00295.1
Quiring, S.M. 2009. Developing Objective Operational Definitions for Monitoring Drought. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 48 (6), 1217-1229. Doi: 10.1175/2009JAMC2088.1
Ren, L., Arkin, P., Smith, T.M., Shen, S.S.P. 2013. Global precipitation trends in 1900–2005 from a reconstruction and coupled model simulations. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 118 (4), 1679-1689. Doi: 10.1002/jgrd.50212.
Richman, M.B. 1986. Rotation of principal components. Journal of Climatology 6 (3), 293-335. Doi: 10.1002/joc.3370060305.
Santos, J.F., Pulido-Calvo, I., Portela, M.M. (2010). Spatial and temporal variability of droughts in Portugal. Water Resources Research 46 (3). Doi: 10.1029/2009WR008071
Schneider, T., Bischoff, T., Haug, G.H. 2014. Migrations and dynamics of the intertropical convergence zone. Nature 513 (7516), 45-53. Doi: 10.1038/nature13636
Schonwiese, C.D., Rapp, J. 1997. Climate trend atlas of Europe based on observations 1891-1990. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, 228 pp.
Seleshi, Y., Zanke, U. 2004. Recent changes in rainfall and rainy days in Ethiopia. International Journal of Climatology 24 (8), 973-983. Doi: 10.1002/joc.1052.
Shanko, D., Camberlin, P. 1998. The effects of the Southwest Indian Ocean tropical cyclones on Ethiopian drought. International Journal of Climatology 18 (12), 1373-1388. Doi: 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(1998100)18:12<1373::AID-JOC313>3.0.CO;2-K
Sheffield, J., Wood, E. 2008. Projected changes in drought occurrence under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario, IPCC AR4 simulations. Climate Dynamics 31 (1), 79-105. doi: 10.1007/s00382-007-0340-z
Sheffield, J., Wood, E.F., Chaney, N., Guan, K., Sadri, S., Yuan, X., Ogallo, L. 2014. A Drought Monitoring and Forecasting System for Sub-Sahara African Water Resources and Food Security. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 95 (6), 861-882. Doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00124.1
Sheffield, J., Wood E.F. 2011. Drought: Past Problems and Future Scenarios. Routledge, 224 pp.
Sheffield, J., Wood, E.F., Roderick, M.L. 2012. Little change in global drought over the past 60 years. Nature 491 (7424), 435-438.
Stagge, J.H., Tallaksen, L.M., Gudmundsson, L., Van Loon, A.F., Stahl, K. 2015. Candidate Distributions for Climatological Drought Indices (SPI and SPEI). International Journal of Climatology 35 (13), 4027-4040. Doi: 10.1002/joc.4267
Trenberth, K.E., Dai, A., van der Schrier, G., Jones, P.D., Barichivich, J., Briffa, K.R., Sheffield, J. 2014. Global warming and changes in drought. Nature Climate Change 4 (1), 17-22. doi: 10.1038/nclimate2067
Van Loon, A.F., Laaha, G. 2015. Hydrological drought severity explained by climate and catchment characteristics. Journal of Hydrology 526, 3-14. Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.10.059
Vicente-Serrano, S.M. 2006. Differences in Spatial Patterns of Drought on Different Time Scales: An Analysis of the Iberian Peninsula. Water Resources Management 20 (1), 37-60. doi: 10.1007/s11269-006-2974-8
Vicente-Serrano, S.M., Cuadrat-Prats, J.M. 2007. Trends in drought intensity and variability in the middle Ebro valley (NE of the Iberian peninsula) during the second half of the twentieth century. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 88 (3-4), 247-258. Doi: 10.1007/s00704-006-0236-6.
Vicente-Serrano, S.M., Beguería, S., Gimeno, L., Eklundh, L., Giuliani, G., Weston, D., Pegram, G.G.S. 2012. Challenges for drought mitigation in Africa: The potential use of geospatial data and drought information systems. Applied Geography 34, 471-486. Doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2012.02.001
Vicente-Serrano, S.M., Beguería, S., López-Moreno, J.I. 2010. A Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. Journal of Climate 23 (7), 1696-1718. Doi: 10.1175/2009JCLI2909.1
Vicente-Serrano, S.M., Chura, O., López-Moreno, J.I., Azorin-Molina, C., Sanchez-Lorenzo, A., Aguilar, E., Nieto, J.J. 2015a. Spatio-temporal variability of droughts in Bolivia: 1955–2012. International Journal of Climatology 35 (10), 3024-3040. Doi: 10.1002/joc.4190
Vicente-Serrano, S.M., Cabello, D., Tomás-Burguera, M., Martín-Hernández, N., Beguería, S., Azorín-Molina, C., Kenawy, A. 2015b. Drought Variability and Land Degradation in Semiarid Regions: Assessment Using Remote Sensing Data and Drought Indices (1982–2011). Remote Sensing 7 (4), 4391.
Viste, E., Korecha, D., Sorteberg, A. 2013. Recent drought and precipitation tendencies in Ethiopia. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 112 (3-4), 535-551. doi: 10.1007/s00704-012-0746-3
Westra, S., Alexander, L.V., Zwiers, F.W. 2013. Global Increasing Trends in Annual Maximum Daily Precipitation. Journal of Climate 26 (11), 3904-3918. Doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00502.1
Wilks, D. 2011. Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. Academic Press, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, U.S.A.
Williams, A.P., Funk, C., Michaelsen, J., Rauscher, S., Robertson, I., Wils, T. G., Loader, N. 2012. Recent summer precipitation trends in the Greater Horn of Africa and the emerging role of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature. Climate Dynamics 39 (9-10), 2307-2328. Doi: 10.1007/s00382-011-1222-y.
Descargas
Publicado
Cómo citar
Número
Sección
Licencia
El autor o autora conserva todos los derechos sobre su artículo y cede a la revista el derecho de la primera publicación, no siendo necesaria la autorización de la revista para su difusión una vez publicado. Una vez publicada la versión del editor el autor está obligado a hacer referencia a ella en las versiones archivadas en los repositorios personales o institucionales.
El artículo se publicará con una licencia Creative Commons de Atribución, que permite a terceros utilizar lo publicado siempre que se mencione la autoría del trabajo y la primera publicación en esta revista.
Se recomienda a los autores/as el archivo de la versión de editor en repositorios institucionales.
