Modelado numérico de las oscilaciones frontales y ocurrencia de formación de diques de hielo del Glaciar Perito Moreno, Campo de Hielo Patagónico Sur

E. Lannutti; M.G. Lenzano; M. Durand; A. Lo Vecchio; S. Moragues; L. Lenzano

doi:10.18172/cig.4213

Autores/as

E. Lannutti Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales (IANIGLA)-Centro Científico Tecnológico (CCT-Mendoza) CONICET
M.G. Lenzano Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales (IANIGLA)-Centro Científico Tecnológico (CCT-Mendoza) CONICET
M. Durand Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales (IANIGLA)-Centro Científico Tecnológico (CCT-Mendoza) CONICET
A. Lo Vecchio Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales (IANIGLA)-Centro Científico Tecnológico (CCT-Mendoza) CONICET
S. Moragues Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales (IANIGLA)-Centro Científico Tecnológico (CCT-Mendoza) CONICET
L. Lenzano Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales (IANIGLA)-Centro Científico Tecnológico (CCT-Mendoza) CONICET

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18172/cig.4213

Palabras clave:

glaciar perito moreno, oscilaciones frontales, dique de hielo, glaciar de calving, modelado numérico

Resumen

En el presente estudio, se aborda el diseño y desarrollo de un modelo numérico computacional del comportamiento del ciclo oscilatorio estacional de avance y retroceso del glaciar Perito Moreno, denominado MO-ACAR. Dentro de su comportamiento oscilatorio, en algunos años el glaciar avanza y alcanza la Península de Magallanes formando un dique de hielo. Por ello, el objetivo del MO-ACAR es simular la posición frontal diaria del glaciar y la ocurrencia de eventos de formación de los diques de hielo durante el periodo 1994-2018. El modelo fue calibrado y validado a partir de un proceso de optimización iterativo, basado en la maximización de valores de correlación y minimización de errores de distancia. La simulación de la ocurrencia de la formación de diques de hielo y la oscilación de la posición frontal lograron altas prestaciones, alcanzando óptimos valores de correlación (0,99) y bajos errores de posición (9,56 ± 13,94 m), respectivamente. Los resultados demuestran que la dinámica del glaciar y la formación de los diques de hielo responden a distintas escalas temporales. En periodos cortos-intermedios de tiempo (escalas diarias-estacionales), la ocurrencia depende tanto de las características propias del evento, como de la fase e intensidad del evento previo. En periodos prolongados (escalas mayores a un año), la modulación de baja frecuencia de la velocidad del flujo de hielo, provocada por las variaciones de temperatura del aire, controla los periodos con formación de diques de hielo y libres de éstos.

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