Drivers of a New Hydrological Scenario in the Chaco-Pampas Breadbasket: The Role of Climate and Vegetation Trends

Simón Alsina; Esteban G. Jobbágy; Marcelo D. Nosetto

doi:10.18172/cig.6782

Autores/as

Simón Alsina Instituto de Matemática Aplicada San Luis (UNSL & CONICET) https://orcid.org/0009-0006-4867-8912
Esteban G. Jobbágy Universidad Nacional de Entre Ríos
Marcelo D. Nosetto Instituto de Matemática Aplicada San Luis (UNSL & CONICET) https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9428-490X

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18172/cig.6782

Palabras clave:

NVDI, agua subterránea, cambio de uso del suelo, nivel freático, GIMMS

Resumen

La llanura Chaco-Pampeana en Argentina, región estratégica para la producción mundial de alimentos, está experimentando un cambio hidrológico caracterizado por un aumento de los excedentes hídricos. Estos excedentes se evidencian en el ascenso de los niveles freáticos, el incremento de las inundaciones, la expansión de humedales y áreas salinas, y la formación de nuevos ríos, todos ellos procesos que amenazan los sistemas productivos. Para investigar las causas, analizamos tendencias de largo plazo (1980-2019) en variables climáticas (precipitación y evapotranspiración de referencia) y de vegetación (NDVI y superficie cultivada) en la región, resumiendo los datos por unidad y subunidad ecoregional, y realizando análisis detallados en zonas focales. Nuestros resultados muestran que las tendencias climáticas no respaldan la generación de excedentes hídricos. En particular, en toda la región la evapotranspiración de referencia promedio aumentó aproximadamente 20 mm por década, mientras que la precipitación se mantuvo en gran medida sin cambios, salvo por una disminución notable (-30 mm por década) en el subregión del Chaco Seco. En contraste, el NDVI mostró una tendencia de disminución en la mayor parte de la región, lo que sugiere una reducción en la capacidad de transpiración de los agro-ecosistemas, impulsada principalmente por la expansión de los cultivos de secano, cuya superficie casi se triplicó durante el período de estudio. En los sitios focales, esta tendencia de disminución del NDVI se correspondió con aumentos significativos en los niveles freáticos (~1 m por década) y con una respuesta más intensa a los eventos de precipitación: para una misma cantidad de lluvia, los niveles freáticos ahora ascienden más que en períodos anteriores. En conjunto, estos resultados sugieren que los cambios en la cobertura del suelo han reducido la capacidad de transpiración de los ecosistemas, intensificando los excedentes hídricos y los desafíos hidrológicos asociados, y destacan la necesidad urgente de estrategias de manejo adaptativo.

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Citas

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