Impacto de las olas de calor en el flujo de calor superficial latente y sensible y perspectivas de futuro para las lagunas someras basadas en modelos de cambio climático
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18172/cig.4456Palabras clave:
flujo de calor sensible, flujo de calor latente, alta frecuencia, ola de calor, laguna somera, boya multi-paramétricaResumen
De acuerdo con las proyecciones de los modelos climáticos, se espera a nivel mundial un aumento en la frecuencia e intensidad de las olas de calor. Este estudio analiza, por primera vez, el efecto de los eventos de olas de calor en los flujos de calor latente (LE) y calor sensible (H) en dos lagunas someras: Laguna La Salada (LS - 39°27′ S, 62°42′ W) y Laguna Sauce Grande (SG - 38°57′ S, 61°24′ W). La velocidad y dirección del viento, la humedad relativa, y las diferencias de temperatura entre el aire y el agua determinaron los cambios en LE y H. Los valores diarios de ambas variables fueron altamente fluctuantes. Los valores medios diarios de H variaron entre -309,4 y 200,5 W m-2 y entre -78,6 y 104,8 W m-2 en LS y SG, respectivamente. Los valores medios diarios de LE variaron entre -152 y 463,9 W m-2 y entre -59,2 y 360,1 W m-2 en LS y SG, respectivamente. Ambos flujos disminuyeron con el paso de eventos de olas de calor, presentando una gran amplitud en los valores. En días con olas de calor comparados con días regulares se registraron cambios de hasta 96% en la media diaria de LE y 671% en la media diaria de H en LS y cambios de hasta 25% en la media diaria de LE y 987% en la media diaria de H para SG. Finalmente, se analizó el futuro incremento de la temperatura del aire para ambas lagunas bajo dos escenarios de calentamiento global (RCP 4.5 y RCP 8.5), que permiten deducir mayores amplitudes de cambio en ambos flujos de calor. Estos resultados contribuyen al desarrollo de modelos para lagunas someras, y a las decisiones de manejo de los recursos hídricos en el futuro.Descargas
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